Perspectives from ISB

(This article is based on a case study by Prof Sarang Deo and MIHM analyst Hemanshu Das.)

As India opens up the world’s most stringent #lockdown, is it prepared to handle continual COVID19 outbreaks?

India is planning to open up after the lockdown but testing is still low – India tests 0.7 per 1000 in comparison to 1.13 in Italy, 1.03 in New Zealand and 1.7 in Denmark – all nations which are reopening. Countries lifting lockdown also have a higher doubling time of COVID19 than India. India’s doubling time was  12 days on May 11, similar to Brazil’s but lower than Denmark (115), Italy (198) and New Zealand (900). As nations ease their lockdowns, countries such as Germany and US have almost returned to pre-COVID19 mobility. India’s change in mobility from April 1 to May 10 has been the least among the countries compared.

Unlike other countries lifting the lockdown, India has been unable to effectively utilise the lockdown period to prepare for exiting the lockdown, both in terms of curbing the epidemic and increasing the testing rate. However, the steps we take with surveillance and serological studies can still allow us to come out of the epidemic unscathed.

Read the complete analysis as published on Indiaspend here.

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