India must enhance early warning systems, develop tailored state and district action plans, and invest in sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather events.
While India deals with the growing risks induced by climate change, it is useful to comprehend the categories and consequences of climatic phenomena that are definitive to the nation, as classified by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The last few years have seen an escalation in extreme conditions such as heat waves, abundant rainfall, and cyclones, which have had devastating impacts on human, agricultural, and economic activities. These more frequent catastrophes will need responses from both policymakers and communities. This year-end write-up explores the need to address these catastrophic weather disturbances while focusing on critical measures necessary to protect lives, secure agricultural production, and enhance disaster risk reduction approaches in the country.
What Constitutes Extreme Weather in India?
In its All India Weather Summary and Forecast bulletins, the IMD plays a vital role in keeping the public informed about extreme weather events through timely forecasts and warnings within a 24-hour reporting period. The IMD classifies several phenomena under extreme weather, including heavy rainfall, heat waves, cloudbursts, cyclones, and droughts. Heavy rainfall is categorised into three levels: heavy rainfall is marked by 64.5 to 115.5 mm over 24 hours, heavy rainfall ranges from 115.6 to 204.4 mm, and anything above 204.5 mm is classified as extremely heavy. Heatwaves, which pose a significant risk to public health, occur when maximum temperatures exceed 40°C in the plains, 37°C at coastal locations, and 30°C in hilly areas.
A heatwave is also declared if temperatures rise between 4.5°C to 6.4°C above the historical average, while a severe heatwave occurs if the increase surpasses 6.4°C. Additionally, cloudbursts, characterised by intense rainfall exceeding 100 mm per hour in localised areas, can lead to sudden and catastrophic flooding. Cyclones, recognised as low-pressure systems with rotating winds, are categorised based on sustained wind speeds of at least 34 knots. Finally, drought is assessed through meteorological criteria, with a drought declared when seasonal rainfall falls below 75% of the long-term average, further classified into moderate and severe droughts based on the extent of rainfall deficiency. Understanding these classifications is essential for effective disaster preparedness and response in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
Weathering the Storm: The Rising Tide of Extreme Weather in India
In May 2024, Rajasthan faced an unprecedented heatwave, with temperatures soaring around 50°C across many districts. The IMD issued a red alert in 20 areas, alarming residents as the oppressive heat contributed to around 40 reported deaths, with some reports suggesting an even higher toll during this critical period from May 23 to May 30. The extreme conditions proved particularly dangerous for vulnerable populations, including newborns; in Jodhpur’s AIIMS, six infants required dialysis due to elevated sodium levels caused by severe dehydration, a condition that can lead to kidney failure and death. Additionally, the heatwave exacerbated a dire situation, leading to widespread electricity shortages and severe drinking water crises across approximately 40 districts.
Conversely, the monsoon season brought catastrophic consequences to states like Kerala, where devastating rainfall triggered landslides in Chooralmala and Mundakkai villages in Wayanad. Over 48 hours, the region experienced record-breaking precipitation, with 204.5 mm in the first 24 hours, followed by 372.6 mm. The disaster resulted in 231 fatalities and left 128 individuals missing, alongside an estimated financial loss of INR 1200 crore. The torrential rains rendered 1,055 homes uninhabitable and severely damaged 626 hectares of crops. The impact extended to public infrastructure, destroying three bridges and two schools while washing away roads and electric lines. Tragically, the region lost nearly 150 cattle and 75 goats, underlining the widespread devastation.
Similarly, Odisha endured the wrath of Cyclone Dana on October 25, 2024. This severe cyclone unleashed torrential rains and high-speed winds, causing extensive damage across 14 districts and affecting over 41 lakh people. In a commendable effort, the Odisha government evacuated 5.84 lakh residents from low-lying areas to cyclone shelters, maintaining a remarkable record of zero casualties. However, the cyclone still resulted in an estimated damage of INR 616.19 crore, impacting public infrastructure, electric poles, and extensive agricultural lands. The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident, highlighting the urgent need for effective disaster preparedness and resilience strategies in the face of these extreme weather events.
Devastating Consequences: The Human, Agricultural, and Economic Impact of Extreme Weather Events in India
Extreme weather events in India have profound implications for human life, agriculture, and the economy, reflecting a stark reality that demands urgent attention. The direct human impact is particularly harrowing. Nearly 48.6% of preschool children in flood-prone areas like Assam suffer from undernutrition, as recurrent floods disrupt food production and supply chains. For instance, floods affect over 30 districts in Assam annually, leading to significant food shortages, poor child-feeding practices, and increased vulnerability to infectious diseases. During floods in Barpeta district, 45.5% of children under five were found to be moderately underweight, with 24.2% classified as severely underweight. Moreover, 50.9% of children aged 24-35 months faced severe undernutrition, underlining the devastating toll of these weather events on the younger population.
Agriculture, the backbone of the Indian economy, faces severe disruption due to extreme weather events. Erratic rainfall patterns have devastated crucial crops such as rice, wheat, and pulses. According to a survey from the Forum of Enterprises for Equitable Development (FEED) in collaboration with the Development Intelligence Unit (DIU), newly planted seedlings often drown as paddy fields remain submerged for extended periods, with uneven rainfall impacting overall yields. The 2022 heatwave significantly affected wheat production, dropping from 109.59 million tonnes in 2021 to 107.7 million tonnes, forcing the government to ban wheat exports. 2023 production declined by three million tonnes compared to the target, showcasing the long-lasting effects of changing climatic conditions. The Climate Transparency Report of 2021 predicts that rice and maise production could decline by 10-30% and 25-70%, respectively, with a temperature increase of 1-4°C. This situation has compelled two-thirds of marginal farmers to adopt climate-resilient practices, adjusting sowing methods, water management strategies, and crop rotation to withstand unpredictable weather patterns.
The economic costs of these disasters are staggering. Between 2019 and 2023, India incurred over $56 billion in damages from weather-related disasters, according to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (Cred) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This financial toll positions India as the fourth most affected country in Asia, collectively facing $230 billion in damages. The strain on national and local economies is evident, as infrastructure repairs, relief efforts, and loss of productivity divert crucial resources away from development and growth, emphasising the urgent need for comprehensive disaster risk management and climate adaptation strategies.
Preparing for Tomorrow: India’s Response to the Escalating Impact of Extreme Weather Events
India has experienced an alarming rise in extreme weather events, with the Climate India 2024 report from Down to Earth highlighting that such events occurred on 255 out of 274 days in the first nine months of the year. This marks an increase from 235 days in 2023 and 241 days in 2022. Tragically, the impact has been felt in human lives, with fatalities rising by 18% from 2,755 in 2022 to 3,238 in 2024. Agricultural productivity has also suffered significantly, with the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) reporting that 3.2 million hectares of cropped land were affected in 2024, a stark 74% increase from the 1.84 million hectares damaged in the year 2022.
In response to these escalating challenges, Indian policymakers are taking decisive actions to enhance disaster preparedness and infrastructure development. State governments are formulating specific action plans to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather. For instance, the Government of Rajasthan introduced the Heat Wave Action Plan 2024, while the Government of Odisha has been focused on minimising casualties during cyclones through continuous improvements in its preparedness strategies. Additionally, the recently passed Disaster Management (Amendment) Bill 2024 amends the Disaster Management Act of 2005, establishing a framework for the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), State Disaster Management Authorities (SDMA), and District Disaster Management Authorities to oversee disaster management more effectively at all levels.
This era has imparted several crucial lessons in disaster management and response. Establishing extreme weather monitoring and early warning systems in routinely affected regions has proven beneficial. For example, in the case of the recent landslide in Wayanad, Kerala, enhanced predictive measures and timely warnings could have potentially averted loss of life. In Odisha, the accurate prediction of Cyclone Dana enabled authorities to execute pre-emptive measures, successfully evacuating residents from low-lying areas and achieving zero casualties.
Looking ahead, the future of climate change in India requires robust research, sustained investment in sustainability, and effective climate adaptation strategies. It is essential to implement measures that conserve the environment, such as increasing mangrove coverage to mitigate the impact of high-speed winds, as seen in Odisha post-cyclone 1999. Furthermore, the recommendations of the Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel (Gadgil Committee Report) offer crucial guidance for climate mitigation and adaptation in ecologically sensitive areas. Both central and state governments need to prioritise implementing such measures to protect communities and ecosystems against the looming threats of climate change.
Critical Policy Actions for Mitigating the Impact of Extreme Weather Events in India
To begin with, creating and strengthening early warning systems is the need of the hour. Promoting advanced meteorology devices and data analysis is vital in improving weather forecasting. This entails creating specialised monitoring centres where extreme weather conditions are common. As a result, the relevant authorities can issue appropriate alerts and supervise evacuation measures, thereby ensuring the protection of human lives and reducing the destruction of property.
Next, national-level action plans could be updated year by year and implemented. The state governments must work out plans appropriate to their vulnerabilities, and district-level plans must be worked-out and implemented. Such plans are needed to manage heat waves, respond to floods, and prepare for cyclones so that the concerned local bodies can easily cope with common climate-related issues.
Finally, climate adaptation and best practices for agriculture and supporting resources should be integrated into developmental plans. For example, to combat the impact of drought on food security, laws and policies should be geared towards providing budgets for better farming practices. These could include drought-resistant crops, educating farmers on adaptive methods, and rebuilding water control systems. Through these strategies, India can ensure its food security and farmers’ livelihoods equilibrium is maintained amidst global warming by enhancing agricultural infrastructure and resilience.
Authors’ Bio : Anjal Prakash is a Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business (ISB). He teaches sustainability at ISB and contributes to IPCC reports.
Authors’ Bio :Vivek Mittal focuses on sustainable digital mobility and has worked as a system design architect with Alstom. He is currently pursuing his PGP at the Indian School of Business. He holds a B. Tech in Instrumentation and Control Engineering from NIT Jalandhar.